Are we under estimating climate change
A UK research study says we could see global warming of 4 °C by 2060. 2060 means that our children and grandchildren are looking at living in a much warmer climate and different world than we live in today.
Nature magazine published the results of research conducted in the UK. The research “commissioned by the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change in London from the Met Office Hadley Centre in Exeter” is looking at the worst case scenario in the 2007 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Our emissions are continuing to rise and our planets ability to capture CO2 will be diminished in the future. Current emissions are at the upper end of the IPCC’s prediction 10 years ago. This means that the chances of reaching 4 °C have greatly increased.
A four degree centigrade rise globally, means that land temperatures will increase more than water temperatures. Land temperatures may increase to 7 °C in some areas and 10 °C or more in the Arctic, western and southern Africa. Rainfall will decrease by 20 percent in other parts of Africa, Australia, the Mediterranean, and Central America.
This means that we have to drastically reduce our emissions by 2030 and not 2050 as previously thought. The recent G20 meeting in Pittsburg failed to make any significant changes that effect the environment outside of the agreement to phase out fossil fuel subsidies.
The current EU climate change proposal is to reduce global emissions by 30 percent below 1990 emissions by 2020. That proposal only gives us a 50-50 chance of staying under the 2 °C tipping point. All other proposals are for a much lower reduction of 0 – 8 percent. Even if the EU proposal were adopted in Copenhagen, the implementation policies would still be years in the making.
Studying the effects of a 4 °C global temperature is important if our children and grandchildren are to survive.
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